Learn the 8 steps needed to buy your next rental property in 90 days or less. For Step 5: Do the Math! I recommend using the Rental Income Property Analysis Spreadsheet for Excel to make sure you are looking at all the facts and figures.
Hussman Funds – Weekly Market Comment
The chart below places MarketCap/GVA on an inverted log scale (blue line, left scale), along with the actual S&P 500 nominal annual total return over the following 12-year period (red line, right scale). Note that current valuations imply a 12-year total return of only about 1% annually. Given that all of this return is likely to come from dividends, current valuations also support the expectation that the S&P 500 Index will be lower 12 years from now than it is today. While that outcome may seem preposterous, recall that the same outcome was also realized in the 12-year period following the 2000 peak.
NASA — 5 Myths About Becoming an Astronaut
Shaken, not Stirred: The James Bond Vesper Martini
James Bond first ordered his trademark drink -which he named the Vesper Martini- when he met CIA agent Felix Leiter in an early chapter in Ian Fleming’s debut Bond novel Casino Royale, published in 1953:
‘A dry martini,’ he said. ‘One. In a deep champagne goblet.’
‘Oui, monsieur.’
‘Just a moment. Three measures of Gordon’s, one of vodka, half a measure of Kina Lillet. Shake it very well until it’s ice-cold, then add a large thin slice of lemon-peel. Got it?’
‘Certainly, monsieur.’ The barman seemed pleased with the idea.
‘Gosh, that’s certainly a drink,’ said Leiter.
Bond laughed. ‘When I’m . . . er . . . concentrating,’ he explained, ‘I never have more than one drink before dinner. But I do like that one to be large and very strong and very cold and very well-made. I hate small portions of anything, particularly when they taste bad. This drink’s my own invention. I’m going to patent it when I can think of a good name.’
Fleming continues with Bond telling the barman, after taking a long sip, “Excellent … but if you can get a vodka made with grain instead of potatoes, you will find it still better.” In the next chapter, Bond names it the Vesper at the time of his first introduction to the beautiful -and original – bond girl Vesper Lynd.
A few years later, in the Dr No novel, Bond orders “a medium Vodka dry Martini – with a slice of lemon peel. Shaken and not stirred please. I would prefer Russian or Polish vodka.”
Contemporary Version:
Since Gordon’s Gin has been reformulated since 1953 (was 94 proof, now typically sold as 75 proof), and Kina Lillet is no longer available in its 1950’s formula, we can recreate the original:
3 parts Beefeater London Dry Gin, 94-proof [Gordons gin if you can find 94-proof]
1 part Stolichnaya Vodka, 100-proof [a Russian vodka made from wheat/rye, not potatoes]
1/2 part Kina Lillet Blanc or Cocchi Americano [an Italian apertif wine used now as a substitute in classic drinks for Kina Lillet]
Shake well on ice, strain into a large Champagne glass
add a Large thin slice of lemon peel
Bond orders his drinks “big”, meaning 3 oz gin, 1 oz vodka, 1/2 oz Kina Lillet. Make this while enjoying an evening at home. Many bars will not sell such a strong drink.
Why Shaken and not Stirred?
-Shaking a cocktail drink 10 – 15 seconds in ice imparts much more energy than stirring, and thus more dilution. You’ll want this extra dilution when using these high-proof gins and vodkas.
Enjoy!
Note: Kina Lillet has a cool history – made with quinone to protect one from malaria.
Caterpillar has downbeat China outlook
Caterpillar, one of the icons of American industrial might and a “bellwether” for the global economy, has been having a hard time. It forecast that sales would drop 5% in 2016, an IBM-like fourth year in a row of declining sales, the worst such spell in its history.Now Caterpillar threw in the towel on its formerly most promising market, China. Not for the current year, or even next year – those are already toast. But for future years. And for the entire industry.
It isn’t just CAT’s problem; the industry as a whole is getting whacked in China because of China’s economy. That’s Tom Pellette, Group President of Caterpillar Inc., with administrative responsibility for Construction Industries, told the Financial Times in an interview.
He cited some terrible industry-wide numbers for China, without disclosing Caterpillar’s own: in 2015, sales of hydraulic excavators between 10-90 tons are expected to be in the “23,000 range,” he said. Back during the China heyday in 2010, the industry sold over five times as many: 120,000 excavators. This would include excavators from Japanese, German, and Chinese competitors. In March 2011, the industry sold 27,000 units – in just that month! – more than in the entire year 2015!Those were the good times when China’s huge stimulus program from the Financial Crisis was reaching corporate pockets.
“That shows how far off the peak we are,” Pellette said. The market might never get back to where it once had been, despite the official GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 6.9%, which would be considered a blistering hot pace in other major economies that have somewhat less opaque economic reporting.
On September 24, Caterpillar had already warned of another round of big trouble. Its statement – evocatively titled in perfect corporate speak, “Building for a Stronger Future, Caterpillar Announces Restructuring and Cost Reduction Plans” – announced “a total possible workforce reduction of more than 10,000 people…” and “the contemplated consolidation and closures of manufacturing facilities occurring through 2018.”
“At this point, we are experiencing continued weakness in key industries that we serve,” it said, with sales declining “in all three of our large segments,” namely Construction Industries, Energy & Transportation, and Resource Industries.
Shrinkage, shrinkage, shrinkage. Because of the global economy. Because of collapsing investment in mining and energy. Because of “a convergence of challenging marketplace conditions in key regions and industry sectors.” Because of China.
Source: Caterpillar has downbeat China outlook – Business Insider
Richard Feynman’s Letter on What Problems to Solve
In this letter, Richard Feynman argues the worthwhile problems are the ones you can really contribute something to.
No problem is too small or too trivial if we can really do something about it.
This scary map of traffic deaths could look very different in 35 years – MarketWatch
More than 370,000 people were killed in car crashes in the U.S. from 2004 to 2013. Alcohol was involved in 31% of those, while distracted driving led to 18%, according to the Department of Transportation. Speeding was also a factor in almost a third of those deaths. Click on the interactive version and you’ll find an amazingly detailed and troubling look at what’s been happening on our roads over the past decade. Dots begin to take shape as men, women and children as you zoom in. The different colors represent drivers in red, passengers in orange, pedestrians in yellow, cyclists in blue and groups in purple.
Source: This scary map of traffic deaths could look very different in 35 years – MarketWatch
CHART: Where Does Global Growth Come From?
Meet The Family That Just Spent Half Its Annual Income Paying For Obamacare | Zero Hedge
Well, since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, also known as the Obamacare tax, we have watched in horror as shocker after shocker are revealed.
Some examples:
- In Latest Obamacare Fiasco, Most Low-Income Workers Can’t Afford “Affordable Care Act”
- The Stunning “Explanation” An Insurance Company Just Used To Boost Health Premiums By 60%
- Your Health Insurance Premiums Are About To Go Through The Roof -The Stunning Reason Why
- Obama Promised Healthcare Premiums Would Fall $2,500 Per Family; They Have Climbed $4,865
- Largest Health Insurer On Colorado Exchange Abruptly Collapses
- Co-Op Insurers Across America Are Collapsing, And Now There Is Fraud
- “$19,000 Premiums, Up 4x Since Passage”: The ‘Crippling Effect’ Of Obamacare On The Middle Class
Now we can add one more thing that “was in it”: soaring deductibles, which give the fake impression of contained, low all-in costs… until one actually needs expensive medial help (and these days there is no other kind).
The latest expose against Obamacare comes not from its usual nemesis, but the hard-left NYT, suggesting that even the ideological supporters of Obama’s “crowning achievement” are losing faith. To wit:
Obama administration officials, urging people to sign up for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, have trumpeted the low premiums available on the law’s new marketplaces.
But for many consumers, the sticker shock is coming not on the front end, when they purchase the plans, but on the back end when they get sick: sky-high deductibles that are leaving some newly insured feeling nearly as vulnerable as they were before they had coverage.
“The deductible, $3,000 a year, makes it impossible to actually go to the doctor,” said David R. Reines, 60, of Jefferson Township, N.J., a former hardware salesman with chronic knee pain. “We have insurance, but can’t afford to use it.”
In many states, more than half the plans offered for sale through HealthCare.gov, the federal online marketplace, have a deductible of $3,000 or more, a New York Times review has found. Those deductibles are causing concern among Democrats — and some Republican detractors of the health law, who once pushed high-deductible health plans in the belief that consumers would be more cost-conscious if they had more of a financial stake or skin in the game.
“We could not afford the deductible,” said Kevin Fanning, 59, who lives in North Texas, near Wichita Falls. “Basically I was paying for insurance I could not afford to use.” He dropped his policy.
In other words, Obamacare’s “affordable care” is affordable, as long as one doesn’t actually have to use it!
Here is the damage when one does:
- In Miami, the median deductible, according to HealthCare.gov, is $5,000.
- In Jackson, Miss., the comparable figure is $5,500.
- In Chicago, the median deductible is $3,400.
- In Phoenix, it is $4,000;
- In Houston and Des Moines, $3,000.
Considering far more than half the US population has less than $1,000 in savings, there are quite literally tens of millions of people who are one ER visit away from the poor house. And they are unhappy. But at least the liberal think tanks have words of advice:
To those worried about high out-of-pocket costs, Dave Chandra, a policy analyst at the liberal-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, has some advice: “Everyone should come back to the marketplace and shop. You may get a better deal.”
Source: Meet The Family That Just Spent Half Its Annual Income Paying For Obamacare | Zero Hedge
The Buffett Formula
Most people go though life not really getting any smarter. Why? They simply won’t do the work required. The Buffett Formula is the path to growing wisdom.
Source: The Buffett Formula
