My Cash signal, which I use with the Momentum Portfolio, just went into an even deeper “Sell” signal today.  We’ve been in cash since Oct. 19th with the signal, so this does not cause any portfolio changes.  I hold on to the stocks thru thick and thin, since I think I know what their Intrinsic Value is.  But the Momentum portion sits in cash until better times.

Of course, this could be early.  According to ‘Registered Rep’ magazine, Steve Leuthold, a respected manager who called the 2008 fiasco, says the S&P 500 should climb by about 19 percent or so from yesterday’s close.  “Then [it] will give up those gains in the second half of the year.” In short, the bull is getting old.

Nevertheless, the firm—managers of the Leuthold Core Investment fund (LCORX)—retains a 65 to 67 percent net exposure to equities, down slightly from 70 percent in mid-December. (Leuthold’s maximum exposure to equities is 70 percent.) Last year, the fund returned 26.93 in 2009, 273 basis points better than its category (large-blend, “moderate allocation” funds), according to Morningstar. Its three-year return was 3.97 percent, or 596 basis points ahead of its competition.

Doug Ramsey, a senior research analyst, put himself out on the line, making a prediction for the coming decade. “Looking back, simple projections of regression to the mean for both earnings and p/e ratios at the end of 1999 would have produced an S&P 500 close within 1.4 percent of the actual close on 12/31/09, ten years later.” He concludes: “Similar analysis for the next decade predicts better performance than the past decade, but still below average.” Of course, as Steve Leuthold always says, “Predictions are show; portfolio changes are for dough.”