I’ve always enjoyed a good discussion of modern art philosophy..
I’ve always enjoyed a good discussion of modern art philosophy..
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was the latest Fed official to claim that “spotting bubbles is hard,” that the Fed cannot see them, and that if it could see them, it shouldn’t do anything to stop them because it had only “limited policy tools.”
Neither Kashkari nor anyone else working at the Treasury Department in 2006 could see any bubbles, not even the housing bubble although it was already beginning to deflate.
“It is really hard to spot bubbles with any confidence before they burst,” Kashkari writes, specifically naming stock prices and house prices. “Everyone can recognize a bubble after it bursts, and then many people convince themselves that they saw it on the way up.”
So here is a visual aid for Kashkari and other Fed governors. It will help them “spot” the beautiful housing bubbles in the US – because bubbles really aren’t hard to recognize before they burst, if you want to recognize them.
Since everyone called it a housing bubble after it had imploded, even Kashkari, today’s phase in the wondrous market is Housing Bubble 2, No?
The other day, Zillow reported that the national median home value in April rose 7.3% year-over-year to $198,000. It too beat the peak of Housing Bubble 1 ($196,600) set in April 2007. “It only took a decade,” Zillow said.
View additional charts for major U.S. cities at: Dear Fed, It’s Not “Really Hard to Spot Bubbles” | Wolf Street
These 19 healthy lunch ideas use only three main ingredients each, making it easier than ever to make a quick healthy lunch.
Weight loss is difficult. It takes commitment. We need to be intentional about it, and measure our progress daily (weekly or even monthly weigh-ins allow too much room for error and excuse). I’ve created a simple, powerful tool to keep you on track toward your diet goals. You WILL reach your weight loss goal using this program.
By the way, this is not a new diet. Any diet will work. Choose your favorite. Just measure yourself daily, and take Action when needed. Its explained and shown in this Article: The Action Diet: Weight Loss That Works!
Below is a screenshot of the program, but read the article for more explanation.
A time where we could all have fun laughing at each other, have our different opinions, and still accomplish something meaningful in government.
Most of the attention around automation focuses on how factory robots and self-driving cars may fundamentally change our workforce, potentially eliminating millions of jobs. But AI that can handle knowledge-based, white-collar work are also becoming increasingly competent.
One Japanese insurance company, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, is reportedly replacing 34 human insurance claim workers with “IBM Watson Explorer,” starting by January 2017.
The AI will scan hospital records and other documents to determine insurance payouts, according to a company press release, factoring injuries, patient medical histories, and procedures administered. Automation of these research and data gathering tasks will help the remaining human workers process the final payout faster, the release says.
Fukoku Mutual will spend $1.7 million (200 million yen) to install the AI system, and $128,000 per year for maintenance, according to Japan’s The Mainichi. The company saves roughly $1.1 million per year on employee salaries by using the IBM software, meaning it hopes to see a return on the investment in less than two years.
With December 2016’s closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average completed a 9-month Demark Sell Setup. This 9-month uptrend (where each monthly close is higher than the close of 4 months prior) is a common turning point for the market. Each major market peak of the last 20 years (2007, 1999) for the Dow Jones and/or the S&P 500 ended on a 9-month Sell Setup. The current situation could be more dire than usual, as this Sell Setup follows on the heels of an 18-month bullish period beginning back in September 2013 – meaning the market is in an extremely bullish phase and ripe for a significant correction. And the S&P 500 has also completed its’ own 9-month Sell Setup in December – similar to the DJIA.
The picture of this extended bull phase is presented below for the Dow Jones. The 9-month Sell Setup is highlighted in cell AT-332.
The spreadsheet which tracks these movements is described here: Trend Exhaustion Market Timing Excel Spreadsheet
For enthusiasts of Frank Lloyd Wright and his extraordinary homes, 2016 offered what felt like an embarrassment of riches on the real estate front.
New research is being conducted to develop nanotechnology that teaches your immune system to destroy tumor cells, giving hope to the 14.5 million Americans with a history of cancer.
This new technology uses nano-sized discs, about 10 nm to be exact, to teach the body to kill cancer cells. “We are basically educating the immune system with these nanodiscs so that immune cells can attack cancer cells in a personalized manner,” said James Moon from the University of Michigan.
Each of these ‘nanodiscs’ is full of neoantigens (tumor-specific mutations) that teach the immune system’s T-cells to recognize each neoantigen and kill them. These work hand-in-hand with immune checkpoint inhibitors that boost the responses of T-cells — forming an anti-cancer system in the body that wipes out tumors and potentially keeps them from reemerging.
So far, the nanodiscs were successfully tested on mice and were shown to be rather promising, eliminating tumors in 10 days. These were also able to shut down identical tumors in the mice after being reinserted 70 days later. “This suggests the immune system ‘remembered’ the cancer cells for long-term immunity,” said Rui Kuai, lead author of the study.
In 2012, Elon Musk warned that anyone holding a stock position against his company (ie. ‘shorting’) would have a “tsunami of hurt” coming for them. Back then all the news flow was positive, and during the following year, Tesla’s stock price increased by 461%. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) was enjoying a massive rise in price from its $25 per share IPO in 2010, up to more than $270 per share in June of 2015. Short sellers in 2012 thru 2014 were too early in their trades and got burned badly. I don’t know what system they use, but traders could’ve avoided losses by waiting for the right time to enter.
The news for Tesla recently has become more negative, and the stock has become a very popular short again. Articles are popping up all over the internet on why the company is in financial trouble (My favorite is here). Tesla is often now the most shorted stock in the entire market, with incredibly up to 30% of float being shorted.
The 10X rise in Tesla stock price, from its’ IPO until 2015, was tracked beautifully by my ‘Trend Exhaustion’ system. The trend came to an end in May of 2015, as shown in the clip below. The mighty uptrend was called to end by a monthly ‘Aggressive Sequential’ signal (see cell BJ68).
(Click on image to enlarge)
Traders should’ve entered a short position during June of 2015 as Tesla was making its all-time high. Since then, the stock has fallen nearly 20%, and may not be done.
This spreadsheet is for sale as the Trend Exhaustion Market Timing Excel Spreadsheet.
In this overvalued market there are more opportunities to short than go long. If you believe we’re at the end of this extended bull market, then shorting “story” stocks such as Tesla can be very profitable.