I sold Geokinetics, Inc. (GOK) today for $7.91 per share, a 92% profit in exactly one year. Geokinetics is the second of two Oil Services firms that I purchased a year ago during the BP Oil spill fiasco, when there were threats to shut down all offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. I knew the U.S. would not abandon our Gulf oil supplies. I described the purchases in this article: Buying When there’s Blood in the Street. The other stock (Hornbeck Offshore Services) was sold March 21st for a 112% profit, as described in this article.
That’s 2 great stock picks, averaging more than 100% profit, yet better money management, combined with my new trend exhaustion spreadsheet, would have yielded a much greater total return to my portfolio.
The bigger the bargain, the more you should buy..
I put 3% of my portfolio in GOK, which was my standard weighting last summer when I bought the stock. There was nothing special about 3%, it just ‘seemed’ right. But GOK was grossly undervalued when I bought, and I should have placed a greater amount in the stock in order to take advantage of the mispricing. How much exactly to invest puzzled me until I remembered the Kelly Formula. I then researched and developed The Kelly Formula for Stock Investing: Growth-Optimized Money Management. (Click on link for article) I use that spreadsheet to tell me how much weight to give each new stock purchase. It is based on a gambling method that gives you optimal betting fractions. In the case of GOK I should have placed 9% of my portfolio in the stock. This alone would have tripled my monetary return.
But that’s not all.
The Trend is your Friend – Until the End..
I bought GOK on June 29, 2010 at $4.12 per share. The timing was perfect, late June 2010 was the 52-week low for the stock. I timed the purchase of GOK using my then-brand-new spreadsheet: Trend Exhaustion Market Timing Spreadsheet.
GOK hit it’s highest price of the past year – over $10 per share – back in February 2011. Unfortunately I wasn’t monitoring my trend exhaustion spreadsheet for this stock, because it gave a signal to Sell GOK on February 28th. I could have got out of the stock at around $10.59, when I was sitting on a 157% return!
You can see the Buy and Sell signals in the spreadsheet image below. The Buy signal was a 9-week Buy SETUP, the signal is given in cell O709 (June 28, 2010). The Sell signal was an ‘Aggressive Sequential’, the signal is given in cell BH744 (February 28, 2011).
I did not time my recent stock purchases (MANT, CSCO, and WMT) using my ‘Trend Exhaustion’ spreadsheet. I may regret it, but those are stocks I really wanted to own at the prices I bought. I did use the ‘Kelly Formula’ spreadsheet to optimize my bet size.
Both of these spreadsheets are now available on my Research Offers page.